Rival Power

  Praise for

  RIVAL POWER

  “It would be good to say that this book is a valuable addition to the canon. It is not. When it comes to the issue of Russia, the Balkans, and the wider region of Southeastern Europe, it is the canon, because no one else has written about it. Dimitar Bechev is the right author of the right book at the right time.”

  Tim Judah, Balkans correspondent, The Economist

  “For the new ‘Great Game’ of geopolitical competition, look above all to the Balkans, a region where the impact of Russian energy, soft power, and covert operations are all at their strongest. This excellent book is the best primer yet to this unfolding struggle; a scholarly, sympathetic, and realistic analysis of the present situation and likely future developments that deserves to be read widely and carefully.”

  Mark Galeotti, head of the Center for European Security,

  Institute of International Relations, Prague

  “Russia is back in the Balkans and ideology has little to do with it. In this engaging book, Dimitar Bechev argues that revival of Russia’s influence in the region was made possible by its pragmatism and tough-minded pursuit of material gains. Those viewing Russia as the new ideological warrior will be challenged in their beliefs.”

  Andrei P. Tsygankov, professor of international relations,

  San Francisco State University

  “This timely and insightful analysis takes the Russian challenge to the stability of Southeast Europe seriously, and shows its limitations, despite the abundant opportunities created by local miscreants.”

  Pavel Baev, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution,

  and Research Professor, Peace Research Institute, Oslo

  “At the time when it is fashionable to sound alarmist on Russia’s return to the Balkans, Rival Power provides a clear-eyed assessment of the opportunities and significant limits for Russia’s power in the region.”

  Vladimir Frolov, foreign affairs columnist, Republic.ru

  “Once written off as a fading actor in a region ever more integrated with the EU, Russia is now playing an increasingly disruptive role in Southeast Europe. Drawing on his innate understanding of the area, and an unmatched knowledge of the region’s languages, Dimitar Bechev looks beyond the stereotypical explanations for this Russian resurgence and investigates the hard political calculations at play. This is a truly excellent, and highly readable, account of how Moscow is trying to extend its influence across the Balkans, Greece, Cyprus, and Turkey.”

  James Ker-Lindsay, Senior Visiting Fellow, London School of

  Economics and Political Science

  “Dimitar Bechev’s book possesses the rare quality of being the work of a seasoned and insightful scholar, but also of someone who appreciates the exciting twists and turns of Russia’s dramatic relationship with the Balkans. Rival Power is very well written and dispenses with several persistent myths, especially one that views countries of the region and their leaders as ‘victims’ of Moscow’s preying. A thrilling and stark exposé of Russia’s masterful use of a limited political arsenal to further its goals.”

  Konstantin Eggert, commentator and host, TV Rain, Moscow

  “Rival Power is a very timely and comprehensive book, written by one of the most accomplished observers of the international relations of the Russian Federation since its inception. It is written in a concise and clear language, masterfully relaying the gradual reemergence of Russia as a new (old) challenge to the West in the Balkans and the Black Sea. A must reading for those who wish to make sense of the recent developments in international politics.”

  Mustafa Aydın, professor at Kadir Has University, Istanbul

  “Dimitar Bechev’s groundbreaking work on Southeast Europe vividly demonstrates how Vladimir Putin exploits the West’s distractions. This book documents a revisionist Kremlin’s efforts to disrupt the reform and integration process in the Western Balkans, and in turn sow doubts about the future of the European project and US leadership. Bechev’s research also makes clear that Russia offers no viable alternative to the European Union and United States in Southeast Europe, while serving as a warning that, if left unchecked, Russian mischief-making could lead to conflict in the region.”

  Damon Wilson, executive vice president of the Atlantic Council

  “In times when conspiracy theories are in full blossom, this is a sober, historically informed, cogently argued, and well-documented analysis of Russia’s influence in Southeast Europe. Very much worth reading.”

  Loukas Tsoukalis, professor of European integration, University

  of Athens, and president of the Hellenic Foundation

  for European and Foreign Policy

  Copyright © 2017 Dimitar Bechev

  All rights reserved. This book may not be reproduced in whole or in part, in any form (beyond that copying permitted by Sections 107 and 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law and except by reviewers for the public press) without written permission from the publishers.

  For information about this and other Yale University Press publications, please contact:

  U.S. Office: sales.press@yale.edu yalebooks.com

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  Set in Minion Pro by IDSUK (DataConnection) Ltd

  Printed in Great Britain by TJ International Ltd, Padstow, Cornwall

  Library of Congress Control Number: 2017943875

  ISBN 978-0-300-21913-5

  A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

  10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

  To my children, Emanuil, Anthony, and Sophia

  CONTENTS

  List of Maps and Figures

  Acknowledgments

  A Note on Transliteration

  List of Abbreviations

  Introduction: An Empire Returns

  PART I Russia and the Countries of Southeast Europe

  1The Balkans Rediscovered: Russia and the Breakup

  of Yugoslavia

  2Meddling in Europe’s Backyard: Russia and the

  Western Balkans

  3Across the Black Sea: Bulgaria and Romania

  4Friends with Benefits: Greece and Cyprus

  5The Russian–Turkish Marriage of Convenience

  PART II Areas of Russian Influence

  6From a Military Standoff to Hybrid Warfare

  7Playing the Energy Card

  8The Allure of Russia’s Might

  Epilogue: Russia’s Influence – What’s It All About?

  Appendices

  Notes

  Select Bibliography

  Index

  MAPS AND FIGURES

  Maps

  1.The Burgas–Alexandroupolis oil pipeline and the Belene nuclear power plant.

  2.Blue Stream.

  3.Blue Stream, TurkStream, and the Akkuyu nuclear power plant.

  4.Southern Corridor.

  5.South Stream.

  6.Gas transit infrastructure in Southeast and Central Europe.

  Figures

  1.EU/Russia share in external trade in goods, 2015.

  2.Key UN Security Council resolutions endorsed by Russia.

  3.Import dependence on Russia (% of domestic consumption).

  4.Gazprom LTC prices ($/1,000 cubic meters).

  5.Russian oil companies in Southeast Europe.

  6.Gas as a percentage of primary energy consumption, 2013.

  7.Imports of Russian gas, 2005/2015 (bcm).

  8.Russian gas deliveries to Southeast Europe (bcm).

  9.Political parties in Bulgaria, Serbia and Greece – attitudes to Russia.

  10.Select pro-Russian websites in Bulgaria, Serbia and Greece.

  11.Serbian public opinion and Russia.

  ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

  This book
is the product of more than three years of work. It was originally conceived after a research trip to Moscow in May 2013 that I took with a co-conspirator, Andrew Wilson, at the time we shared an affiliation with the European Council on Foreign Relations. Although our report on the decline of Gazprom never saw the light of day, much of the content ultimately found its way into Andy’s masterful account of the Ukraine crisis and, now, in this volume. The idea of writing a book on Russia in Southeast Europe picked up speed only in the watershed moment that was the spring and summer of 2014. In the process of conducting research and drafting the text, I benefited from the incredible hospitality of a number of institutions, drawing vast amounts of knowledge and inspiration from fellow scholars across disciplines.

  The project began in earnest in the academic year of 2014–15, which I spent as a fellow at LSEE, the unit at the London School of Economics specializing in the politics and economics of Southeast Europe. I owe a special debt to James Ker-Lindsay, Tena Prelec, and to Spyros Economides (who, many moons ago, examined my DPhil thesis at Oxford). Exceptionally kind hosts as well as dear friends, they all helped me reinvent myself as an academic, following a stint in the policy world. Together with James and Othon Anastasakis of Southeast European Studies at Oxford (SEESOX), a program with which I was affiliated between 2002 and 2009, I had the pleasure to co-convene a conference on Russia’s involvement in the Balkans.

  The bulk of the writing was done at Harvard University, where I spent more than a year at the Center for European Studies. I am grateful to Elaine Papoulias, a long-time friend who shares my passion for the politics of Turkey and the Balkans, to the CES director Grzegorz Ekiert, and to all fellows of the center whose generosity was only matched by their intellectual depth. My gratitude extends also to the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, whose seminar series provided an excellent opportunity to present my work. Many thanks to Mark Kramer, Rawi Abdelal, and to Lenore Martin who tirelessly co-pilots the Turkish Studies Seminar, as well as to the Post-Communist Politics Working Group, especially Dmitry Gorenburg and Nadiya Kravets. At Harvard, I was privileged to get to know Joseph Nye whose scholarship I have admired since my undergraduate days and who helped sharpen my thinking about the project I had embarked upon. Last but not least, I am thankful to the Center for Slavic, Eurasian, and East European Studies at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, and particularly to Milada-Anna Vachudová and Adnan Džumhur.

  The list of people to whom I owe thanks is unmanageably long and includes colleagues who invited me as a speaker, chaired my talks, or were fellow panelists; those who were kind enough to read the chapters and provide critical feedback and advice; and, of course, those who spared the time to talk to me about the multitude of subjects I address in the book. There follows a list of names, in no particular order: Tim Judah, Amanda Paul, Damir Marušić, Wojcieh Ostrowski, Eamonn Butler, Iver Neumann, Roy Allison, Florian Bieber, Kerem Öktem, Vladimir Frolov, Nicu Popescu, Kalypso Nicolaidis, Cahtryn Clüver, Mesut Özcan, Bill Park, Alina Inayeh, Suat Kınıklıoğlu, Paul Ivan, Plamen Petrov, Srdja Pavlović, Ioannis Grigoriadis, Illin Stanev, Tolga Bölükbaşı, Martin Vladimirov, Pavel Anastasov, Josip Glaurdić, Suat Kınıklıoğlu, Vassilis Petsinis, Filip Ejdus, Ivan Krastev, Ilian Vassilev, Michael Taylor, Peter Pomerantsev, Konstantin Eggert, Miloš Damnjanović, Kyril Drezov, Margarita Assenova, Tom Junes, Andrey Makarychev, Hanna Shelest, Simon Saradzhyan, David Koranyi, John Herbst, Galip Dalay, Ulrich Speck, Ümit Sönmez, Angela Stent, Jeffrey Mankoff, Loukas Tsoukalis, Tolga Bölükbaşı, Orysia Lutsevych, Michael Werz, Dušan Spasojević, Şaban Kardaş, David Patrikarakos, and Julian Popov. Needless to say, the blame for any errors and omissions is all mine.

  I would also like to extend my thanks to the anonymous peer reviewers at Yale University Press who read my proposal and then the final draft. This book owes a great deal to Taiba Batool, Senior Commissioning Editor at Yale, who supported me from the very outset and guided me through the process. A heartfelt “thank you” to her as well as to the rest of the production team, including Jennie Doyle, Melissa Bond, and Samantha Cross. My gratitude also goes to Richard Mason, who copy-edited the text with great care.

  Lastly, this book would not have been possible without my wife, Galina, with whom I have been through a lot over those three years. It was she along my parents-in-law, Penka and Georgi, who shared the joy—and shouldered the demanding tasks—of raising three children and helped me see the manuscript through. I wish to dedicate this book also to our loving memory of Georgi.

  A NOTE ON TRANSLITERATION

  I have rendered Russian words and names using the Romanization rules of the Library of Congress. The only exception is made for names already popularized with an alternative transliteration. Therefore, “Yeltsin” rather than “El’tsin”. The Library of Congress system is applied to Greek as well. Serbian, Croatian, Bosnian, and Montenegrin names appear with the original diacritics, as do the ones in Turkish.

  ABBREVIATIONS

  A2/AD

  Anti-access/area denial

  AES

  Atomexportstroy

  AKEL

  Anorthōtikó Kómma Ergazoménou Laoú,

  Progressive Party of the Working People (Cyprus)

  AKP

  Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, Justice and

  Development Party (Turkey)

  ANAP

  Anavatan Partisi, Motherland Party (Turkey)

  ANB

  Agencija za nacijonalnu bezbednost, National

  Security Agency (Montenegro)

  ANEL

  Anexártētoi Éllēnes, Independent Greeks

  bcm

  billion cubic meters (natural gas)

  BIA

  Bezbednosno-informativna agencija, Security and

  Information Agency (Serbia)

  BSEC

  Black Sea Economic Co-operation

  BSP

  Bulgarian Socialist Party

  BTC

  Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan oil pipeline

  CDR

  Romanian Democratic Convention, Convenţia

  Democrată Română

  CSDP

  Common Security and Defence Policy (EU)

  CEF

  Connecting Europe Facility (EU)

  CIS

  Commonwealth of Independent States

  CSTO

  Collective Security Treaty Organization

  DANS

  Dârzhavna agenciya za nacionalna sigurnost, State

  Agency for National Security (Bulgaria)

  DDoS

  distributed denial of service

  DEPA

  Dēmósia Epiheirēsē Parohēs Aeríou, Public Gas

  Corporation (Greece)

  DISY

  Dēmokratikós Synagermós, Democratic Rally

  (Cyprus)

  DS

  Demokratska stranka, Democratic Party (Serbia)

  DSS

  Demokratska stranka Srbije, Democratic Party of

  Serbia

  DYP

  Doğru Yol Partisi, True Path Party (Turkey)

  EC

  European Community

  EDF

  Électricitė de France

  EEU

  Eurasian Economic Union

  EEZ

  Exclusive economic zone

  EPS

  Elektroprivreda Srbije, Electrical Industry of Serbia

  EU

  European Union

  FRY

  Federal Republic of Yugoslavia

  FSB

  Federal’naia sluzhba bezopasnosti, Federal Security

  Service (Russia)

  FSN

  Frontul Salvării Naţionale, National Salvation

  Front (Romania)

  FTA

  Free Trade Agreement

  GECF

  Gas Exporting Countries Forum

  GDP

  Gross Domestic Product

  GERB

  Grazhdani za evropeysko razvitie na Bâlgaria, br />
  Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria

  GRU

  Glavnoe razvedyvatel’noe upravlenie, Main

  Intelligence Directorate (Soviet Union/Russia)

  HDZ

  Hrvatska demokratska zajednica, Croatian

  Democratic Union

  ICJ

  International Court of Justice

  ICTY

  International Criminal Tribunal for Former

  Yugoslavia

  IFOR/SFOR

  Implementation/Stabilization Force (NATO)

  IGA

  Intergovernmental Agreement

  IPAP

  Individual Partnership Action Plan (NATO)

  ISIS

  Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant

  JNA

  Jugoslovenska narodna armija, Yugoslav People’s

  Army

  KAP

  Kombinat Aluminijuma Podgorica, Aluminum

  Smelter Combine of Podgorica

  KFOR

  Kosovo Force (NATO)

  KGB

  Komitet gosudarstvennoi bezopasnosti, State

  Security Committee

  KKE

  Kommounistikó kómma tēs Elládas, Communist

  Party of Greece

  KLA

  Kosovo Liberation Army

  KTB

  Korportativna târgovska banka, Corporate

  Commercial Bank